Early Warning System for Wildfires on the Cards
The groundwork is being laid for the development of a system to predict wildfires in Barbados that could significantly reduce the costs associated with this occurrence and its impact on health.
The proposed Wildfire Warning Index is the brainchild of the Centre for Biosecurity Studies (CBS) at the Cave Hill Campus. If realised, it would not only forecast the number of wildfires but where they could occur based on the climate forecast.
The CBS defines wildfires as fires that burn biomass or vegetation. This encompasses sugar cane, trees, grass, and rubbish fires.
Director of the centre Dr. Kirk Douglas said the index would only account for the influence of climate variables on wildfires and not the human factor nor spontaneous combustion, the latter two being unpredictable.
The centre has reached out to researchers at the Climate Studies Group of Mona Campus, The University of the West Indies (UWI) who were instrumental in the development and presentation of a similar index for Jamaica.
The initiative is a key component in a pending research grant proposal to the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility (CCRIF).
Another significant aspect entails putting a dollar value on the cost of wildfires, with the expectation that this would spur policymakers to act.
Dr. Douglas explained, “When you’re looking at the economic impact, it is not merely about the vegetation that is burnt or the water that is used to extinguish these fires. You’re also looking at manpower, affected businesses and schools that have to close. Some people may have to go on sick leave because of exposure to the smoke; then you have to examine the economic impact of chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs) and the role this exposure is having on the healthcare bill of a particular country.”
This effort will be strengthened by the work of H3E Caribbean Initiative (Human Heredity, Environment and Health in the Caribbean), a partnership comprising The UWI Faculties of Medical Sciences, the Jamaica Cancer Care & Research Institute (JACCRI) and Harvard/MGH Center on Genomics, Vulnerable Populations, and Health Disparities, and in which the CBS is involved as Co-Chair of the Environment Working Group.
This H3E Caribbean Initiative is exploring how climate change relates to the built environment, physical infrastructure, pollution, beauty products, food/nutrition, substance abuse, physical activity, and varied psychological and psychosocial stressors to which individuals were exposed from birth to the present, known as the exposome, and how these elements have impacted genomic DNA and its correlation to chronic NCDs, including multiple forms of cancers, hypertension, strokes, asthma, and diabetes.
Dr. Douglas said their research proposal is supported by the Department of Emergency Management of Barbados and the Barbados Fire Service. Buy-in would also be sought from the Barbados Water Authority given the link between climate change, fires, and the water supply.
Already, data were collected from the Research and Planning Unit of the Barbados Fire Service covering the 2006 to 2020 period, while climate data were obtained from the Barbados Meteorological Services for 2008 to 2020. This data showed that most fires occurred in St. Michael, with St. Philip and Christ Church also recording notable numbers.
Researchers also conducted regression analysis (a process used to determine relationships between variables) that focused on five climatic variables – temperature, rainfall, humidity, relative humidity, and wind speed. The results showed that about 63 percent of rubbish fires, 53 percent of grass fires and 35 percent of sugar cane fires could be explained by variations in the climate.
Another part of the plan would see the provision of drones to the Barbados Fire Service.
“What we thought we can do to help the Fire Service is to arrange to purchase some drones for officers to take into the field when they’re responding to calls. We will train select fire officers identified by the Barbados Fire Service to operate the drones. These drones would allow them to have an aerial view of the fire, and this can help them in terms of how they deal with the fire. This would also allow them to collect imagery, whether it be photographs and/or videos that they can use to estimate the burn size area. With the assistance of machine learning or artificial intelligence, they should be able to calculate the burn size area without having to do it manually.”
To support their work, Dr. Douglas said they plan to install remote air pollution sensors at an estimated ten hotspots around the island during the pilot phase. These sensors would provide air pollution level data from these locations and elucidate the impact of wildfires on air quality.
“In addition to providing the drones, training, and bringing together the different stakeholders, the aim is to purchase remote air pollution sensors [that are] powered by renewable energy. These would be placed at strategic locations that are known hotspots for these types of wildfires. For each location where these sensors are located, we would be able to track the activity in terms of air pollution. This would also be a good proxy for determining health exposure risks [to] persons living in that area. We can then link this to some of the health problems we have in the Caribbean like cancers, since air pollutants also increase the risk of NCDs.”
The work being done by CBS falls within the ambit of the I Can’t Breathe: Caribbean Air Pollution Initiative that was launched virtually on 29 April 2021. Dr. Douglas said the I Can’t Breathe: … initiative seeks to support Caribbean governments in tackling global warming caused by greenhouse gas emissions and a range of air pollution threats to human, environmental and ecosystem health. He explained that actions would involve monitoring, the establishment of baseline levels for air pollutants, and the development of a regional air pollution database and legal framework.
Presentations delivered during the launch revealed that countries in the Caribbean are at different stages of data collection and monitoring for air pollutants. The presenters were Jiselle Joseph, Environmental Management Authority, Trinidad and Tobago; Tashana Redmond, Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), Guyana; Lianda Chapman, Environmental Protection Department, Barbados; and Meteorologist with the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology, Dr. Andrea Sealy. They provided a synopsis of the current and active air quality monitoring programmes in the Caribbean.
Return to Research News